3.14Nickel Morning Briefing
Refined Nickel:
SMM March13News:Spot Premiums/Discounts: The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan Nickel was
1,150-1,200yuan/mt, with an average premium of 1,175yuan/mt, down 75yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The premium/discount quotation range for Russian Nickel was -100 to 0yuan/mt, with an average discount of -50yuan/mt, up 50yuan from the previous trading day.
Futures: Nickel prices opened lower and fluctuated downward today. As of 11:30, the closing price was 132,500yuan/mt, up 0.18% from the previous trading day's settlement price, with a high of 134,450yuan/mt.
Spot Premiums/Discounts: Jinchuan Nickel premiums continued to decline by 75yuan compared to the previous trading day. Due to weak demand and the recent continuous rise in nickel prices, the end-use market mainly remained in a wait-and-see mode, with no significant purchase willingness observed.
From a technical perspective, SHFE nickel futures contracts opened lower, experienced a brief rebound, but then pulled back again. In the short term, market sentiment continues to dominate nickel price trends, with overall sentiment remaining cautious.
Nickel Sulphate Price Spread: Today, nickel briquette prices were 132,300-132,850yuan/mt, with an average price of 132,575yuan/mt,up 1,225yuan/mt from the previous trading day's spot price. Nickel sulphate remains at a discount to refined nickel.
Nickel Sulphate:
This week, nickel salt prices increased, with a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes among nickel salt smelters.
As of Thursday this week, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 27,553yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 27,500-28,200yuan/mt, and the average price increased compared to last week. From the supply side, LME nickel prices fluctuated at high levels this week, exacerbating the losses faced by nickel salt smelters, further fueling their sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Currently, nickel salt smelters' inventory levels are low, and market circulation is relatively limited. Some nickel salt smelters may consider production cuts due to pressure from losses. On the demand side, some precursor plants have yet to complete their just-in-time stockpiling for March and still have restocking needs. However, due to rising raw material costs, precursor plants face significant losses, slowing their stockpiling pace. Overall, given the limited circulation in the nickel salt market and the sentiment to raise prices driven by losses at nickel salt smelters, nickel sulphate prices are expected to continue rising next week.
NPI:
March13News:The SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 1,004.5yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 4.5yuan/mtu from the previous working day. On the supply side, domestically, as the rainy season in the Philippines nears its end, nickel ore output remains tight, nickel ore prices are stable, and smelters' production motivation is weak, with production running at low levels. In Indonesia, some production lines in major production areas have not significantly recovered, and combined with lower-than-expected nickel ore output, overall production remains stable. On the demand side, stainless steel production schedules are expected to maintain an upward trend, and with rising stainless steel scrap prices, the raw material cost-effectiveness has weakened, leading to optimistic demand for high-grade NPI. In the short term, strong cost support for high-grade NPI, coupled with tightening supply and demand, is expected to keep prices relatively stable with a strong trend.
Stainless Steel:
According to SMM surveys, on March13, stainless steel market prices continued to rise. In futures, the most-traded contract 2505fluctuated at high levels. At 10:30AM, the SS2505 was quoted at 13,575yuan/mt, up 25yuan. In Wuxi, the 304/2B spot premiums/discounts ranged from -155 to -145yuan/mt.
Spot market prices continued to rise, with a general increase of 50yuan/mt, and actual transactions were negotiable on a case-by-case basis. The market showed polarization, with stainless steel mills and traders having strong bullish sentiment, while downstream enterprises, with no significant increase in orders and some existing inventory, maintained minimal just-in-time restocking. The Wuxi and Foshan spot markets performed differently. The Wuxi market remained highly active, with prices for various types of 304 coils rising. For example, the average price of 304/2B coil (mill edge) increased by
40yuan/mt. The market showed a significant increase in inquiries and a tightening of low-priced resources. Traders were eager to sell, adopting stable or higher pricing strategies, with both 300-series and 400-series prices adjusted upward to varying degrees, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. In contrast, the Foshan market was relatively subdued, with prices only slightly rising. For example, the average price of 304/2B coil (mill edge) increased by
25yuan/mt. Transactions were less than ideal, and downstream buyers lacked confidence in the price increase, showing a muted response to macroeconomic stimuli and maintaining cautious procurement behavior, continuing the calm purchasing trend observed on March12. Enthusiasm remained low, and purchasing actions were slow.
Nickel Ore:
Last week, FOB prices for medium- to high-grade nickel ore from the Philippines pulled back after peaking. In the low-nickel high-iron market, as the rainy season in the Philippines ends, mines are gradually offering March shipments, with current FOB transaction prices slightly easing compared to pre-rainy season levels. For medium- to high-grade nickel ore, influenced by rising Indonesian ore prices and continuous increases in downstream NPI prices, Philippine mines maintained a sentiment to stand firm on quotes. However, domestic NPI plants' limited acceptance of high-priced nickel ore led to a slight decrease in tender prices for medium-grade nickel ore last week. Supply: The rainy season in major southern mining areas is gradually ending, and Philippine shipments are expected to increase. Demand: Continuous increases in downstream NPI prices have brought some profit recovery, but NPI plants still face losses, limiting their acceptance of high-priced nickel ore. Currently, just-in-time restocking remains the primary approach. Port inventory: Nickel ore port inventory continues to decline. Ocean freight: Some freight rates have reached $11/mt. As the rainy season ends in major southern mining areas, shifts in shipping origins may lead to higher freight rates. Overall, influenced by multiple factors, Philippine nickel ore prices may pull back after peaking in recent weeks, fluctuating downward.
Current market transaction prices: For pyrometallurgical ore, Indonesian nickel ore's mainstream premium price for Sulawesi Island was $19-20/wmt. The SMM Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore (1.2%, delivery-to-factory price) ranged from $25.5-27.5/wmt, up $0.5/wmt WoW, a 1.8% increase. The SMM Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore (1.6%, delivery-to-factory price) ranged from $46.5-51.5/wmt, up $0.4/wmt WoW, a 0.9% increase. Pyrometallurgical ore continued its upward price trend, but the increase narrowed compared to February. Supply: The rainy season in Indonesia's Sulawesi main mining area is expected to end gradually in March, with Indonesian nickel ore supply expected to increase. However, downstream smelters' just-in-time procurement demand remains, and supply may be affected around Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr. Demand: Mid-tier smelters have just-in-time procurement needs this month, providing demand support. Inventory: Mid-tier pyrometallurgical enterprises generally maintain inventory levels below two months, with high enthusiasm for March procurement and restocking, boosting market transaction activity. Hydrometallurgical ore: The tight supply rhythm continues this year. Currently, hydrometallurgical ore delivered to factories in Sulawesi Island is priced at approximately $26/wmt. With the ramp-up and commissioning of MHP projects this year, downstream demand is expected to increase. However, due to limited quotas, mines prefer to prioritize the more profitable pyrometallurgical ore, actively reducing hydrometallurgical ore sales, leading to a faster price increase for hydrometallurgical ore compared to pyrometallurgical ore. Future focus: The impact of the March HPM price, to be announced on the 15th, on Indonesian nickel ore prices, as well as the actual circulation of domestic trade ore after the rainy season ends. Additionally, the new policy issued by Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources this week, which adjusted the HPM pricing method, has caused some market sentiment disturbances, although it does not directly affect nickel smelters. Overall, Indonesian domestic ore prices in March are expected to remain stable with a strong trend. Upstream shipments are expected to increase, coupled with existing demand. However, due to the overall tight supply rhythm of nickel ore, the absolute price of Indonesian nickel ore is expected to rise, but the pace of increase may slow.
